Ontario Election 2003 Voter Guide: Table of Contents

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July 20, 2003: Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe & Mail

Survey Period: August 11th to August 17th, 2003*
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Press Release: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)
Full Results: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)

*Note: The black-out of 2003 commenced on August 14, 2003, in the middle of the survey period. Accordingly, inferences about how the results were affected by Premier Eves' response to the black-out should take this into account.

	Feb. '03	Apr. '03	Jun. '03	Aug. '03
"Time for a New Party to Take Over"	57%	63%	59%	60%

"Thinking of how you feel right now, if a provincial election were held tomorrow, which of the following Parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since Jun, '03	Change Since Apr. '03	Change Since Feb. '03	Change Since 12/02
"Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty"	49%	+1	+1%	+6%	+4%
"PCs led by Ernie Eves"	36%	+1%	+5%	0%	-2%
"NDP led by Howard Hampton"	12%	-2%	-4%	-3%	-2%
"Green party led by Frank De Jong"	1%	0%	-3%	-4%	-2%
"Other"	2%	0%	+1%	+2%	+2%

July 16, 2003: Environics Research Group: Focus Ontario

Survey Period: June 20th to July 7th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,008 adults
Reliability: estimated to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: not available online.

"Thinking of your own local riding, if a provincial election were held in Ontario today, would you vote for the candidate of the ... [READ AND ROTATE] Liberal Party ... New Democratic Party ... Progressive Conservative Party? Would you say that at the present time you are at least leaning or slightly favourable to one of the parties or candidates in your riding?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since...
Options Given by Pollster	%	04/03	01/03	10/02 11/02	04/02	01/02
"Liberal Party"	46%	-4%	+3%	+2% +5%	-4%	-6%
"Progressive Conservative Party"	33%	-1%	-4%	-6% -7%	-2%	-2%
"New Democratic Party"	17%	+1%	-1%	-1% -5%	+3%	+3%
Don't Know / Undecided	10%	-6%	-4%	-9% -2%	-7%	-11%
Other	4%	+1%	+1%	+2% +3%	+1	+3%

June 19, 2003: Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe & Mail

Survey Period: June 5th to June 11th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,002 adults
Press Release: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)
Full Results: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)

	Feb. '03	Apr. '03	Jun. '03
"Time for a New Party to Take Over"	57%	63%	59%

"Thinking of how you feel right now, if a provincial election were held tomorrow, which of the following Parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since Apr. '03	Change Since Feb. '03	Change Since 12/02
"Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty"	48%	0%	+5%	+3%
"PCs led by Ernie Eves"	35%	+4%	-1%	-3%
"NDP led by Howard Hampton"	14%	-2%	-1%	0%
"Green party led by Frank De Jong"	1%	-3%	-4%	-2%
"Other"	2%	+1%	+2%	+2%

MAY 2, 2003: Environics Research Group: Focus Ontario

Survey Period: April 10th to April 25th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Reliability: estimated to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: not available online.

"Thinking of your own local riding, if a provincial election were held in Ontario today, would you vote for the candidate of the ... [READ AND ROTATE] Liberal Party ... New Democratic Party ... Progressive Conservative Party? Would you say that at the present time you are at least leaning or slightly favourable to one of the parties or candidates in your riding?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since...
Options Given by Pollster	%	01/03	10/02 11/02	04/02	01/02
"Liberal Party"	50%	+7%	+6% +9%	-0%	-2%
"Progressive Conservative Party"	31%	-3%	-5% -6%	-1%	-1%
"New Democratic Party"	16%	-2%	-2% -6%	+2%	+2%
Don't Know / Undecided	16%	+2%	-3% +4%	-1%	-5%
Other	3%	0%	+1% +2%	0%	+2%

APRIL 23, 2003: Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe & Mail

Survey Period: April 12th to April 19th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)

	Feb. '03	Apr. '03
"Time for a New Party to Take Over"	57%	63%

"Thinking of how you feel right now, if a provincial election were held tomorrow, which of the following Parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?"

Options Given by Pollster	(all)% / (decided voters)%	Change Since Feb. '03	Change Since 12/02
"Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty"	43% / 48%	0%	-2%
"PCs led by Ernie Eves"	28% / 31%	-8%	-10%
"NDP led by Howard Hampton"	15% / 16%	0%	+1%
"Green party led by Frank De Jong"	4% / 4%	-1%	+1
Don't Know / Undecided	9%	-2%	-2%
Would not Vote / Spoil Ballot	0% / ?%	-1%	-1%
"Other"	1% / 1%	+1%	+1%

FEBRUARY 28, 2003: Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe & Mail

Survey Period:February 13th to February 20th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)

"Would Provide the Best Overall Government":

McGuinty & Liberals	39%
Harris/Eves & PCs	35%
Don't Know	14%
Hampton & NDP	12%

FEBRUARY 27, 2003: Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe & Mail

Survey Period:February 13th to February 20th, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: Click Here (pdf file: download Adobe Acrobat if needed)

"Time for a New Party to Take Over"	57%
Conservatives who would re-elect the Progressive Conservatives	80%
Conservatives who would not re-elect the Progressive Conservatives	17%

"Thinking of how you feel right now, if a provincial election were held tomorrow, which of the following Parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since 12/02
"Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty"	43%	-2%
"PCs led by Ernie Eves"	36%	-2%
"NDP led by Howard Hampton"	15%	+1%
"Green party led by Frank De Jong"	5%	+2
Don't Know / Undecided	11%	0%
Would not Vote / Spoil Ballot	1%	0%
"Other"	0%	0%

JANUARY 29, 2003: Environics Research Group: Focus Ontario

Survey Period:January 15th to January 22nd, 2003
No. of People Questioned: 1,000 adults
Reliability: estimated to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
Press Release: Click Here
Full Results: not available online.

"Thinking of your own local riding, if a provincial election were held in Ontario today, would you vote for the candidate of the ... [READ AND ROTATE] Liberal Party ... New Democratic Party ... Progressive Conservative Party?"

Options Given by Pollster	%	Change Since...
Options Given by Pollster	%	10/02 11/02	04/02	01/02
"Liberal Party"	43%	-1% +2%	-7%	-9%
"Progressive Conservative Party"	34%	-2% -3%	+2%	+2%
"New Democratic Party"	18%	+0% -4%	+4%	+4%
Don't Know / Undecided	14%	-5% +2%	-3%	-7%
Other	3%	+1% +2%	0%	+2%

ELECTION 1999: Ekos Reseach Associates

This poll, taken during May of 1999 during the 1999 Ontario provincial election, gives a rich account of voters' opinions re: the competency of the PCs, Liberals and NDP in each of several areas of governance (e.g., health care, education, child welfare, etc.) and provides invaluable insight for context in election 2003.

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*Note: Links to the parts of the Elections Ontario web site are provided here for your convenience only. Elections Ontario has no connection whatsoever with the Ontario Election 2003 Voter Guide and it does not necessarily agree with any of the information included on the Ontario Election 2003 Voter Guide web pages.